PARIS: This year is on track to become the hottest in recorded history, with November becoming the sixth consecutive record-breaking month, according to Europe’s climate monitor. The rising temperatures add further pressure on the ongoing COP28 talks to take decisive action on climate change.
Last month shattered the previous November heat record, pushing the global average temperature for 2023 to 1.46 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, as reported by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
While there were earlier predictions that 2023 could surpass 2016 as the hottest year, particularly after September and October saw record-breaking temperatures, this confirmation marks the first time it has been officially confirmed.
November also witnessed two days that were 2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, a phenomenon never recorded before.
Samantha Burgess, deputy head of the Copernicus service, highlighted that 2023 has experienced “six record-breaking months and two record-breaking seasons.” She stated, “The extraordinary global November temperatures, including two days warmer than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, mean that 2023 is the warmest year in recorded history.”
Scientists have suggested that data from ice cores, tree rings, and other sources indicate that this year could be the warmest in over 100,000 years.
To phase out or down?
The announcement of this record-breaking year coincides with negotiators from nearly 200 countries gathering at the COP28 talks in Dubai to discuss the final draft agreement in response to a critical evaluation of progress in limiting global warming. A crucial aspect of this agreement is the future of oil, gas, and coal, which are the primary drivers of human-caused climate change.
Debates at the talks, held in the oil-rich UAE, have centered around whether to “phase out” or “phase down” fossil fuels. However, a new proposal suggesting an “orderly and just” phase-out of fossil fuels could potentially find consensus among countries. This approach would allow different timelines for emissions reduction based on the level of development and reliance on hydrocarbons of each country.
Alternatively, there is an option to avoid mentioning fossil fuels altogether, reflecting opposition from nations such as Saudi Arabia and China, as reported by several observers present at the closed meetings.
Another contentious draft paragraph that calls for a “rapid phase-out of unabated coal power this decade” has faced resistance from China, South Africa, and Vietnam, according to the same observers.
A revised version of the draft text is expected on Wednesday morning, which will then be discussed at the talks, set to conclude on December 12th.
‘Temperature will keep rising’
Meanwhile, 2023 has witnessed a series of devastating extreme weather events linked to climate change, even as global carbon emissions continue to rise.
According to Copernicus, whose records date back to 1940, the first 11 months of this year have been 0.13 degrees Celsius hotter than in 2016, the previous warmest year on record.
The second half of this year has seen a surge in global temperatures, partly driven by the El Niño weather pattern. However, the anomalies caused by El Niño have been fewer in 2023 compared to the 2015-2016 period, as reported by the Copernicus service.
The three months from September to November, marking autumn in the northern hemisphere, were the hottest ever recorded “by a large margin,” according to Copernicus.
November alone was 1.75 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, representing a significant 0.85-degree Celsius increase compared to the 1991-2020 average, as stated by Copernicus.
These figures indicate that the world is approaching the critical threshold of a 1.5-degree Celsius increase since pre-industrial times, as outlined in the Paris climate agreement.
However, sustained temperatures above 1.5 degrees Celsius over several decades would be required to breach the Paris limit.
Carlo Buontempo, head of Copernicus, emphasized, “As long as greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising, we can’t expect different outcomes.”
“The temperature will continue to rise unless we take significant action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
Source: The Manila Times
