State-of-the-art climate models drastically underestimate the extent to which extreme rainfall will increase under global warming, according to a study published on Monday. The study, conducted by researchers from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), highlights the urgent need for humanity to curb greenhouse emissions to prevent more frequent catastrophic floods in the future.
The findings of this study are particularly relevant as countries prepare to meet at the COP28 summit in Dubai later this week. There are growing concerns that it may soon become impossible to limit long-term warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that scientists say is necessary to mitigate the worst effects of human-caused climate change.
The researchers analyzed the intensity and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over land in 21 “next generation” climate models used by a UN body in its global assessments. They compared the projected changes in these models with historical observations and discovered that almost all of the climate models significantly underestimated the rates at which increases in precipitation extremes scaled with global temperature rise.
“Our study confirms that the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall extremes are increasing exponentially with every increment of global warming,” said Max Kotz, lead author of the paper published in the Journal of Climate.
This phenomenon can be explained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation in physics, which states that warmer air can hold more water vapor. As a result, temperature, rather than wind, plays a dominant role in driving the global change in extreme rainfall events.
The study found that the strongest increases in rainfall intensity and frequency are occurring across the tropics and high latitudes, such as Southeast Asia and Northern Canada. This means that these regions need to be prepared for heavier and more frequent extreme rainfall events in the future.
“The good news is that this makes it easier to predict the future of extreme rainfall,” said co-author Anders Levermann. “The bad news is that it will get worse if we continue to push up global temperatures by emitting greenhouse gases.”
This study highlights the importance of taking immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change. It serves as a reminder that the consequences of global warming are not limited to rising temperatures alone but also include more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
As countries gather at the COP28 summit, it is crucial for policymakers to prioritize climate action and implement strategies that will help limit global warming to a level that is safe for humanity and the planet. This includes transitioning to renewable energy sources, promoting sustainable practices, and fostering international cooperation to address the global climate crisis.
By understanding the limitations of current climate models and the potential consequences of underestimating extreme rainfall, we can work towards building a more resilient and sustainable future for generations to come.
Source: The Manila Times
