The latest predictions from Britain’s Met Office reveal that the increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere this year are set to surpass the key trajectories for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Researchers emphasize that only “drastic” cuts in emissions can help us stay on track to meet this target.
The rise in emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation will be further exacerbated by the cyclical weather phenomenon known as El Niño in 2024. This weather pattern reduces the ability of tropical forests to absorb carbon, leading to a “relatively large” increase in average CO2 concentrations measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. It is estimated that these concentrations will be approximately 2.84 parts per million (ppm) higher than in 2023.
These projections indicate that the world is likely to deviate from the main pathways outlined by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which was the more ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Richard Betts, the author of the CO2 forecast at the Met Office, states, “It’s looking vanishingly unlikely that we’ll limit warming to 1.5°C.” He explains that while it is technically still possible to achieve this target through significant emissions reductions, the scenarios presented by the IPCC already show a slowdown in CO2 buildup in the atmosphere to meet the goal.
Scientists warn that we are nearing the point where individual years may experience warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius or higher. However, it’s important to note that this alone does not breach the Paris target, which is measured over an average of approximately two decades.
The IPCC has already indicated that if emissions continue at their current rate, the world will surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold in the early 2030s. Betts adds, “We’re not seeing any signs of avoiding that in terms of the buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere.”
The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations confirmed last week that 2023 was the warmest year on record by a significant margin, with the annual average global temperature reaching 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This year could potentially be even hotter due to the El Niño climate pattern, which typically leads to increased global temperatures for one year following its emergence in mid-2023.
El Niño also brings about hotter and drier conditions in tropical forests and peatlands, reducing their ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. Normally, ecosystems and ocean absorption remove around half of humanity’s emissions from the atmosphere. However, during an El Niño event, this “free service” weakens, resulting in more emissions staying in the atmosphere.
There is particular concern for regions of the Amazon that have already experienced severe drought, heatwaves, and fires. Experts from the UN have calculated that emissions must be nearly halved within this decade to maintain the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit. Unfortunately, carbon pollution continues to rise.
The Mauna Loa Observatory, which has been monitoring atmospheric CO2 levels since 1958, has observed a trend of increasing concentrations. While there may be fluctuations, the overall trend continues to climb. To predict CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa, which is considered representative of global averages, the Met Office combines emissions data with observations and forecasts of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial east Pacific, which serve as an indicator for El Niño.
Betts emphasizes that even without the El Niño effect, the estimated CO2 buildup in the atmosphere would be at the “very, very upper limit of consistency” with the IPCC’s 1.5 degrees Celsius scenarios. He underscores the urgency for emissions cuts, stating that while there may be multiple paths to reach the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, all of them require immediate action.
In conclusion, the latest predictions highlight the concerning reality that increased carbon dioxide levels are surpassing the targets set to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Urgent and drastic emissions cuts are necessary to steer us back on track and prevent further climate change consequences.
Source: The Manila Times
