According to the Department of Science and Technology (DoST), at least 65 provinces in the Philippines will face severe drought from February to May next year due to a “strong” El Niño. Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum has warned that around 7 percent of the total provinces nationwide, approximately six provinces, may experience a dry spell during this period.
Based on recent conditions, Solidum predicts that moderate to severe drought conditions are likely to persist from February to May 2024. By the end of May, approximately 77 percent of the provinces, or around 65 provinces, will have the potential for drought, with an additional 7 percent experiencing a dry spell. Solidum also highlighted that the maximum temperature in Northern Luzon around April or May could reach up to 41 degrees Celsius.
However, it is important to note that the heat index, which measures how hot it actually feels when humidity is factored in, could bring the temperature up by an additional 5 to 15 degrees. In Metro Manila, the temperature could reach 38.3 degrees Celsius, while in lowland Luzon, it may soar as high as 39.9 degrees Celsius. Mindanao could experience scorching temperatures of 39.5 degrees Celsius in April.
Given the severity of the situation, Solidum emphasized the need for the country to prepare for this “strong” El Niño. He stressed that efforts must be intensified across various fields such as health, water, agriculture, sanitation, and peace and order. Solidum also called for the involvement of everyone in this collective effort.
Prior to this announcement, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) had already warned that the provinces of Batangas, Cavite, and Oriental Mindoro would likely start experiencing drought as early as December this year. Pagasa Officer in Charge Nathaniel Servando further revealed that Abra, Ilocos Norte, Bataan, Zambales, Occidental Mindoro, and Metro Manila would also be affected by severe dry conditions.
For clarification, a dry spell is defined as three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall conditions, while a dry condition is defined as two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall. Areas hit by drought experience three consecutive months of significantly reduced rainfall, with a 60 percent reduction from average rainfall.
According to Solidum, the upcoming El Niño episode could be comparable to the episodes in 1997 and 1998, which were regarded as the worst. To address this potential crisis, the government has prepared a national action plan (NAP) to ensure water security, food security, energy security, and public safety. The NAP will be implemented by various government agencies in collaboration with local communities.
Highlighting the importance of awareness and preparedness, Solidum stressed the need for a massive information campaign to educate citizens and the government on how to mitigate the effects of El Niño. He emphasized the urgency of planning ahead and implementing measures promptly.
During a sectoral meeting in Malacañang, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered the coordination of all plans to mitigate the effects of El Niño on water, agriculture, energy, health, security, and education. Solidum revealed that the President’s directive is to categorize actions into short and medium-term strategies, with a focus on prompt implementation of the easier initiatives.
As the threat of severe drought looms over the Philippines, it is crucial for both the government and citizens to work together to minimize the impact of El Niño. By taking proactive measures and implementing the national action plan, the country can strive to ensure water and food security, maintain energy supply, and prioritize public safety in the face of this natural phenomenon.
Source: The Manila Times
