China’s approach to the dilapidated BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal is driven by its desire to avoid a military confrontation with the United States, according to a maritime security analyst based in the United States. Retired US Col. Raymond Powell believes that China will not attempt to forcibly remove the beached ship, despite its repeated threats to do so.
China claims Ayungin Shoal, also known as Ren’ai Jiao, as part of the Spratly Islands, which it controls. However, Powell explains that China will likely refrain from towing away the Sierra Madre due to its status as a commissioned ship of the Philippine Navy. The deliberate grounding of the ship in 1999 was a response to China’s “illegal occupation” of Panganiban or Mischief Reef in 1995, as stated by the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA).
The Sierra Madre serves as a “constant Philippine government presence” on Ayungin Shoal, highlighting the Philippines’ commitment to protect its territorial integrity. Powell emphasizes that the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) between the Philippines and the United States further strengthens the Philippines’ position. According to Article 4 of the MDT, an armed attack on the Philippines would automatically trigger an armed response from the US. The treaty also stipulates that any armed attack should be reported to the United Nations Security Council.
Despite these tensions, Powell believes that China does not want to provide a reason for the United States to directly engage in a conflict in the South China Sea. China’s perspective, as Powell explains, is to wait for the Sierra Madre to deteriorate naturally while maintaining a blockade on Ayungin Shoal. If the ship starts to fall apart and the troops on board call for help, China can then intervene, rescue the troops, remove the ship, and declare the situation resolved.
China’s economic influence in the region also plays a significant role in shaping the response of some members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Powell highlights China’s use of economic inducements and threats to sway nations to align with its interests. He cites a Singaporean diplomat’s famous quote, describing ASEAN as a cow rather than a horse, implying that the organization is limited in its ability to take a strong stance on collective security.
However, Powell notes that not all ASEAN members are equally invested in the South China Sea issue. For example, landlocked Laos has minimal interest in the region. This diversity of perspectives within ASEAN further complicates efforts to develop a unified response to China’s actions.
In conclusion, China’s strategy regarding the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal is centered around avoiding a military confrontation with the United States. By waiting for the ship to naturally deteriorate while maintaining a blockade, China aims to resolve the situation without escalating tensions. The Philippines’ alliance with the United States through the Mutual Defense Treaty provides a crucial deterrent against any armed attack. However, China’s economic influence in the region and the diverse perspectives within ASEAN present additional challenges in formulating a unified response.
Source: The Manila Times
