Building a forward operating base (FOB) and undertaking major repairs on the dilapidated BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal will require careful consideration of the risks involved. As China continues to enforce a blockade of the shoal, the Philippines and its ally, the United States, must weigh their options. Raymond Powell, a defense and security expert from the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, emphasizes that the primary concern is how to construct a new structure to replace the intentionally grounded Philippine Navy ship in Ayungin since 1999.
The Sierra Madre has been serving as living quarters for Philippine troops stationed at Ayungin. However, Chinese ships have become increasingly aggressive in confronting Philippine ships during resupply missions, using water cannons and engaging in dangerous blocking maneuvers. The proposal to build an FOB in Ayungin was first suggested by Blake Herzinger, an Indo-Pacific maritime security expert and former US Navy intelligence officer. Herzinger proposed replacing the derelict ship with a permanent structure manned by rotational forces from both the Philippines and the US Marine Corps.
While Herzinger acknowledges that an FOB in Ayungin would be a provocative move, he believes it would demonstrate the US’s commitment to supporting the Philippines as an ally. In November, reports emerged that Manila was receiving advice from Washington on how to conduct repairs on the Sierra Madre, further enhancing the proposal. However, doubts have been raised by the Manila-based think tank Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute (ACPSSI) regarding Beijing’s willingness to allow the delivery of large-scale construction materials for building a stronger outpost in Ayungin.
Herman Tiu Laurel, the president of ACPSSI, expresses skepticism about China’s tolerance for the construction of an FOB in the shoal. He warns that proceeding with such a plan will test the limits of China’s patience and may invite a serious showdown with the China Coast Guard (CCG) and the Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM). Laurel points out that the CCG has consistently warned against allowing Philippine vessels carrying construction materials to enter the shoal. Additionally, he highlights that “superficial repairs” on the Sierra Madre violated an agreement between the Philippines and China, which was publicly admitted by former Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin in 2013.
Given these challenges, the Philippines and the United States must carefully evaluate the potential consequences of building an FOB in Ayungin. The construction of a new structure would undoubtedly face opposition from China, and the Philippines, together with its American treaty ally, must consider how far they are willing to go to carry out such a plan. It is crucial to assess the risks involved and explore diplomatic solutions to prevent a serious escalation of tensions in the region.
While the proposal for an FOB in Ayungin may be seen as a strong indication of the US’s commitment to supporting the Philippines, it is essential to approach the situation with caution. International laws, customs, and agreements should be taken into account to ensure that any actions taken are in compliance with established norms. Diplomatic negotiations and open communication channels should be utilized to address concerns and find common ground.
Building a forward operating base in Ayungin Shoal is a complex undertaking that requires careful consideration of the geopolitical landscape and potential consequences. It is essential for all parties involved to approach the situation with a focus on peaceful resolution and respect for international laws and agreements. Only through open dialogue and cooperation can the Philippines, the United States, and China find a way forward that ensures stability and security in the region.
Source: The Manila Times
