El Niño’s Influence: UN Warns 2024 Could Be Hotter Than 2023

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GENEVA, Switzerland: The United Nations has issued a warning that this year could be even hotter than the record-shattering 2023, due to the influence of El Niño. The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that new monthly temperature records were set every month between June and December, and this trend is likely to continue as a result of the warming El Niño weather phenomenon.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 1 in 3 chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023, with a 99 percent certainty that 2024 will rank among the five warmest years ever. However, NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt believes the odds are even higher, estimating a 50-50 chance that 2024 will be warmer or slightly cooler. Schmidt also mentioned the presence of “mysterious” changes to Earth’s climate systems, which require further data to confirm or refute.

The WMO confirmed that July and August of last year were the two hottest months ever recorded, officially declaring 2023 as the warmest year on record “by a huge margin.” The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a stretch goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.

The WMO reported that the 2023 annual average global temperature was 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). However, one of the six datasets used by the WMO, the nonprofit research organization Berkeley Earth, placed the figure as high as 1.54 degrees Celsius.

The WMO’s new secretary-general, Celeste Saulo, warned that El Niño, which emerged in mid-2023, is likely to intensify the heat even further in 2024. El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with increased heat worldwide, typically leads to higher global temperatures in the year following its development.

NOAA reported that the 2023 global surface temperature was 1.18 degrees Celsius above the 20th-century average, surpassing the previous warmest year, 2016, by a record-setting margin of 0.15 degrees Celsius. The Arctic, northern North America, central Asia, the North Atlantic, and the eastern tropical Pacific experienced particularly high temperatures.

Saulo emphasized that climate change is now “the biggest challenge that humanity faces.” A WMO report in November revealed that concentrations of the three main heat-trapping greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – reached record-high levels in 2022, and preliminary data indicates that these levels continued to rise in 2023. Saulo stated unequivocally that “climate change is escalating, and this is because of human activities.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern over humanity’s actions, stating that we are “scorching the Earth.” He added that the year 2023 was just a glimpse of the catastrophic future that awaits if immediate action is not taken.

The WMO highlighted that since the 1980s, each decade has been warmer than the previous one, and the warmest nine years on record have all occurred since 2015. The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, NOAA, and NASA also released their temperature findings, all of which align with the WMO’s assessment.

The WMO consolidates data from six major international datasets to provide an authoritative temperature assessment. The 10-year average temperature from 2014 to 2023 was 1.20 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

Even if Earth’s average surface temperature breaches the 1.5-degree Celsius target, the international community must continue to prioritize efforts to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The urgency to act is clear, as the consequences of inaction will have far-reaching and devastating effects on our planet and future generations.

Source: The Manila Times

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