By Simon Zadek
Special to THE TIMES KUWAIT
The negotiators and activists preparing to attend the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai are well aware that it is highly unlikely to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is crucial to share this reality more widely, as it may be the only way to gather the political will necessary to move beyond incremental actions and embrace disruptive measures that match the scale of the challenge.
While the official stance is that the 1.5°C target set by the 2015 Paris climate agreement is still achievable with decisive and immediate action, the reforms required are politically challenging and therefore almost non-existent. Global coal consumption reached a record high of 8.3 billion tons in 2022, and Chevron and ExxonMobil recently invested a combined $113 billion in securing additional oil and gas reserves, clearly indicating their belief in the long-term profitability of fossil fuels.
It is evident that we are heading towards global temperatures at least 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The International Energy Agency recently concluded that, based on current policies, global emissions could raise average temperatures by around 2.4°C this century.
A future beyond 1.5°C will be vastly different from our current reality, and even small increments in temperature will have significant consequences. At 2°C warming, approximately 40 percent of the world’s population will face severe heatwaves, and up to one-third will experience chronic water scarcity. The human cost, including displacement, lost livelihoods, and premature deaths, will be unprecedented, with the most vulnerable communities, primarily in poorer countries, bearing the heaviest burden.
We must do everything within our power to prevent these outcomes. Paradoxically, the false hope of achieving the 1.5°C target has become a hindrance to progress on climate action. A publication titled “Time to Plan for a Future Beyond 1.5 Degrees” by NatureFinance, released on the eve of COP28, highlights how this goal, while reflecting our ambition, has also perpetuated the notion of a “win-win” energy transition, where the future world resembles ours but without carbon emissions. This narrative, endorsed by many political, business, and civil-society leaders, limits our response, confining us to act within the boundaries of conventional wisdom.
Humanity often struggles to respond effectively to slow-moving crises. Breaking free from this pattern usually requires the emergence of a “new truth,” often through a sudden shock that solidifies a paradigm shift and expands the realm of possibility.
For example, in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, finance ministers and central bank governors abandoned the long-held belief that monetary expansion must be avoided at all costs to prevent inflation. Instead, they embraced quantitative easing, effectively printing money, to stimulate economic recovery. Similarly, following the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading G20 governments abandoned their commitment to fiscal austerity and adopted costly universal-income payments, previously dismissed as utopian fantasy.
Shifting our focus to a future beyond 1.5°C is not only necessary but also an opportunity to reimagine our world. It requires us to challenge conventional thinking and embrace transformative actions that align with the urgency of the climate crisis. By acknowledging the reality and consequences of exceeding the 1.5°C limit, we can mobilize the political will needed to drive meaningful change and safeguard our planet for future generations.
