MANILA, Philippines: The Department of Science and Technology (DoST) has issued a warning that a “strong” El Niño is expected to cause severe drought in at least 65 or 77 percent of the country’s provinces from February to May 2024. Additionally, around six or 7 percent of provinces may experience a dry spell during this period. Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum shared these predictions during a recent press briefing at the Palace.
According to Solidum, recent conditions indicate that moderate to severe drought conditions are likely to persist from February to May 2024. By the end of May, approximately 77 percent of the provinces, which translates to around 65 provinces, will have the potential for drought. Another 7 percent, or approximately six provinces, may experience a dry spell.
Highlighting the severity of the situation, Solidum mentioned that the maximum temperature in Northern Luzon could reach up to 41 degrees Celsius in April or May. However, he emphasized that the heat index, which factors in humidity levels, could raise the actual temperature by an additional five to 15 degrees.
In Metro Manila, the forecasted temperature is 38.3 degrees Celsius, while lowland Luzon may experience temperatures as high as 39.9 degrees Celsius. Mindanao, by April, is expected to reach a temperature of 39.5 degrees Celsius.
Solidum also provided temperature forecasts for the Amihan times, which are expected to range between 9.4 degrees Celsius and 14.8 degrees Celsius.
The DoST official acknowledged that there is a “strong” indication of an El Niño event next year, emphasizing the need for preparedness. He stated, “So, essentially, the rest of the country would be from dry condition to drought, mostly drought.”
In light of these predictions, Solidum stressed the importance of intensifying efforts to ensure readiness in various sectors, including health, water, agriculture, sanitation, and peace and order. He emphasized the need for collective involvement in this endeavor.
It is crucial to understand the definitions used to categorize drought conditions. A dry spell is defined as three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, while a dry condition refers to two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, both indicating a reduction of 21 to 60 percent from average rainfall. Drought is characterized by three consecutive months of significantly below-normal rainfall, with a reduction of 60 percent or more from average rainfall.
Furthermore, Solidum cautioned that the current El Niño event shows indications of being “comparable” to the 1997-1998 episode, which was recognized as one of the most severe El Niño events in the world.
In response to this potential crisis, the government has formulated a national action plan (NAP) aimed at ensuring water security, food security, energy security, and public health and safety amidst the El Niño phenomenon.
As the Philippines prepares to face the challenges posed by the impending severe drought, it is crucial for individuals, communities, and authorities to remain vigilant and take necessary measures to mitigate the impact of this natural phenomenon.
Source: The Manila Times
